 |
 |
|
||
|
|
|
4-7
March 2004, Amman, Jordan
Situation
in Iraq: Concerns of Neighboring States As the US confronts the realities of Iraq with focus on transfer of power on June 30, 2004 the US is compelled and is obliged to seriously ponder over intricate domestic issues and complex interests of all of Iraq's neighbors. There is a real danger that any ill-conceived move favoring one ethnic group against the other in Iraq will provoke one neighbor to press advantage against the other. Fearful of each other, Iraq's neighbors have met several times in the year or so to take stock of the situation and reiterating the usual positions on territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iraq. Their strong interest in territorial integrity of Iraq can be harnessed to promote harmony and consultations within Iraq. For reasons of space and time, I am not touching upon the security situation and shall confine myself to interests of the major domestic and neighboring players. Kurds After an apparent failure to persuade the Arab colleagues in the Governing Council, the Kurdistan Democratic Party paper recently published an article by Massoud Barazani claiming that Kurds who enjoyed 12 years of de facto independence would not accept anything less than a federal status for Kurdistan. Adnan Pachachi says that Kurds can get what they want as long as they show patience. In a country used to one-man rule, federalism demanded by the Kurds is not properly understood. Many suspect that this reflects Kurdish aspiration to split from Iraq. Turkmen Shias Sunnis Many Iraqis, Arabs and Muslims believe that this is an engineered fragmentation of Iraqi society, which happily existed without these fissures before. It is argued that this is done to manipulate smaller groups by outside powers to promote their interests in the larger context of Middle East. Dividing Iraq within itself that could pose one potent threat to Israel, they argue weakens the Palestinian struggle for independence. Governing
Council / CPA Notwithstanding the resolution of the process, Paul Bremer, favors a situation, as it existed before the American invasion of Iraq. This would allow considerable autonomy for Kurdish areas minus Kirkuk. Following two days of rioting early in the year the CPA announced that Iraqi Kurds would continue to enjoy the autonomy in their northern half even after power is handed over to the sovereign Iraqi government. Such a step naturally arouses a lot of suspicions amongst Iraq's neighbors especially Turkey. Many however, doubt that an independent but landlocked Kurdistan could survive amongst foes, even if they had Kirkuk. In addition to the ethic dimensions Mr. Bremer's reported opposition to Islamic clauses to the draft constitution prepared by the Governing Council has sparked another crises. He has reportedly threatened to veto any provision making Islam the basis of all laws made by the Iraqi parliament. UN
Secretary General's Report
Sistani, who challenged the Americans calling for a direct vote, has said that he would accept a short delay in elections. He argues that any non-elected administration must only have limited powers. Ahmed Chalabi, head of Iraqi national Congress, one of the exiles so openly promoted by the US, contends that elections are still possible by June 30. Reported discussions between Iraqi politicians and the CPA are proving contentious and inconclusive at least for now. The ideas on the table include: calling a national conference to choose a caretaker government, partial elections or handover of powers to the Governing Council. Despite this political jockeying the US Administrator insists that the CPA is obliged to leave behind a democratic government in Iraq and that June 30 was immutable. If the US is compelled to abandon the complicated caucus plan, he favors handing over power to an expanded Governing Council. The Secretary General's team under much respected Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, has correctly assessed that different communities in Iraq reflect a grave sense of history attached to the current situation. The Sunnis and the secular elite suffer from the fear of losing power, the Shia's want to correct their previous powerlessness, the Kurds are determined to maintain or even enhance their autonomy, and minorities want to avoid a system in which they drown permanently. Since most of the local players, in one way or the other, are aligned to or seek support from outside powers, there is a need to build consensus and develop joint stakes in the maintenance of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iraq. The good thing is that all of Iraq's neighbors have together publicly vowed to maintain Iraq within the existing boundaries. How the internal structures are built will eventually depend on compromises made within Iraq and amongst other interested powers. Concerns
of Neighbors The neighbors, all hope that a broad-based representative Iraqi government will soon be formed that, "coexists peacefully with its neighbors and respects international conventions and agreements." Successive Foreign ministers meetings have also emphasized the need for Iraq to decide its own destiny and remain in control of its resources. Amidst this confusion there is a French proposal to call an international conference on Iraq modeled on the Bonn conference on Afghanistan. The idea first mooted by the Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in an CNN interview on November 19, 2003, proposed that apart from the various Iraqi groups, the UN, the Coalition partners and the neighboring states may attend this conference. The US, is not favorably disposed to this idea fearing that focus and control may shift to a body not directly under the US. While Turks are reportedly not averse to the proposal; the Arabs and Iranians will also find it attractive. As a group of neighboring countries that have already held five meetings on Iraq they will draw strength from a larger group essentially aiming at the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq. But unless the US comes on board the idea may not take off. Kuwait Iraq's historic claims over Kuwait have always led to suspicion and troubled relationship between the two states. The recent reported statement by the current Governing Council President Mr. Mohsin Hameed that Iraq could consider territorial claims over neighboring Kuwait and Jordan have exacerbated Kuwaiti fears of Iraqi intentions. Following these provocative statements the Kuwaiti academicians have warned that Kuwait must not rush into forging ties with Iraq. Syria Jordan Like many other counties in the region and elsewhere, Jordan considers the Palestinian Israeli peace process as directly connected to the situation in Iraq. The more situation deteriorates in Iraq, the more difficult it will become to resolve the Palestinian conflict. Saudi
Arabia Saudi Arabia therefore, wants Iraq return to its sovereign status as quickly as possible. They have repeated that Iraq's territorial integrity be respected by all parties concerned. Saudi Arabia because of its significant capacity to assist in reconstruction efforts would like to have a substantial stake in the reconstruction process. Iran
With the possibility of majority rule emerging in Iraq and Shia majority population, Iran hopes that Shias will eventually assume predominant position in Iraq. Tehran is also interested that the Kurdish aspirations for a loose federal structure are contained so as to prevent its germination in the Iranian Kurdish areas. Most of the holiest Shia cities are in Iraq. Iran on the other hand is seen as a center of Shia political and theological role in the region. With relative freedom coming into Iraq, some Iranians are worried that Shia theological centers might reemerge in Iraq, independent of Iranian influence. A further cause of worry is that these centers, if they grow in status, might even provide leadership and shelter to the Iranian Shia dissidents and may ultimately weaken the Islamic republic. Considering Saddam's removal as an improvement in regional situation, Iran has taken some highly visible steps to extend legitimacy to the Governing Council. They are one the few Islamic countries to host the President of the Governing Council and sign a number of agreements with the interim administration in Iraq. Peace and stability in Iraq has serious religious, economic and security implications for Iran. Iran would obviously want a Shia dominated government. A government based on ethnic majority elected on one man one vote basis predominantly Shia will exactly suit the Iranian interests at least in the short run. Iran therefore supports Sistani's demand for direct elections. Turkey Turkey is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to seek support from other states against US attempts to acquiesce with ethnic based federal structure in Iraq. Due to its traditionally strong opposition to expression of Kurdish statehood the Turks openly stand by and support the Turkomen who they consider as their ethnic cousins. Turkey 's offer to send 10,000 troops was withdrawn amidst serious opposition from the Governing Council and specially the Kurdish leadership who are as much suspicious of Turkish intentions as Turks are of theirs. Turkey is equally worried at reported attempts by Iranians to promote a Shia government in Baghdad, which will then promote Iranian interests against the other neighbors. Turkey claims Kirkuk as Turkomen city and dismisses any counter claims by the Kurds. Foreign
Minister's Meetings The Kuwait communiqué has reaffirmed the role of the UN, "so that it assume its central responsibilities throughout the transitional process in Iraq." They want UN involvement in preparing grounds for withdrawal of occupying powers as soon as possible and help facilitate transfer of power to Iraqi people by June 30 as agreed between the Governing Council and the Coalition Provisional Authority. The Ministers have once again drawn attention of the occupying powers of their responsibilities in accordance with the relevant Security Council resolutions and specially the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949. The Iraqi Foreign Minister reaffirmed at the Kuwait conference that Shia Iraq and Iran will not team up and asked neighbors to leave Iraq alone. Conclusion Iraq and its surrounding region cannot be studied apart from each other. There are strong undertones that Iraq, and whatever has been done to it is directly connected with conflict in Palestine. Notwithstanding differences with Saddam Hussein, leaders of all neighboring states warned against military intervention in Iraq. Failure to find weapons of mass destruction belies US claims and reasons to invade Iraq. Common Iraqis and Arabs are not sure of real US intentions. Each of Iraq's neighbors seems to be watching the other. With suspicions running high, they have all stood together calling for respect of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iraq. Each of them wants the UN to play an effective role in restoring normalcy in a highly charged environment. With geography a dynamic force all of them worryingly understand that continued chaos and anarchy could mean further breakdown of Iraqi structure leading to redrawing of Middle East boundaries. There is a common belief that US, and its coalition partners have created this mess. They need to get out quickly and let the collective will of the international community represented by the UN help Iraq's and the region's return to a civilized state.
|