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The
Daily Telegraph Star Wars
II Dear Sir, Your leader in Monday’s issue, "Thank you, President Bush" correctly draws attention to the dangers of fissile material, plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), falling into the hands of rogue states and terrorist groups. There have in fact been many examples of attempted theft and smuggling of Russian fissile materials and Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Libya are all suspected of being involved in such activities. Other potential customers are the terrorist organisations Aum Shinrikyo (notorious for its nerve gas attack in a Tokyo subway), and those linked to Usama bin Laden. You are right to assume that, having acquired the fissile material, particularly HEU, it is not difficult to construct an atomic bomb. Where you are quite wrong is to assume that it is a relatively simple matter to miniaturise such a weapon so that it can form the warhead of a specially designed and constructed intercontinental missile. Such an enterprise would of course be quite beyond the capability of a terrorist group and even for a nation state would involve many years development. Even if all this were accomplished, to launch such a weapon against the USA would be the height of madness. The source of the missile would be known immediately and instant and massive reprisals would effectively destroy the offending country. Where would be the sense in that? In contrast, should the rogue country, or in this case even a terrorist group, have a grievance against the USA, or any other developed state, it would not be difficult to smuggle the components of an atomic bomb into, say, a rented flat in the centre of the target city. The assembly and subsequent detonation of such a weapon would be a simple matter and the consequences unimaginable. The bomb would not only destroy the centre of the city and kill tens of thousands of its citizens, it would also eliminate all evidence of its provenance, so rapid retaliation would not be possible. A leading authority on nuclear conflict, Professor Francesco Calogero, believes there is a fifty percent chance of such a terrorist attack taking place on one of the West’s major cities in the next decade. The most immediate danger to world security is the creation of an international black market in fissile material. Ever since primitive communities constructed the first palisade to protect their homes against invaders the idea of a collective defence system has been obviously sensible and hence politically popular. On the other hand, the palisade must complete the circuit and not, Maginot-like, leave large gaps through which armies could pass, or have small holes at ground level through which saboteurs could freely enter. If the US is prepared to spend well in excess of a hundred billion dollars then no doubt it could produce a shield which would protect it from a highly improbable missile attack. But this is not the point. Wise governance is about spending money to the best possible purpose. A hundred billion dollars, or even a fraction of that sum, spent within the former Soviet Union countries to make secure the huge quantities of fissile materials arising from the dismantling of weapons and nuclear facilities, would add far more to the safety of the American public, and to the rest of the world community. In fact, President Bush is planning to cut-back on even the present levels of expenditure on such projects. Yours sincerely, Jack Harris Prof. Jack Harris is a Fellow of the Royal Society and Editor of Interdisciplinary Science Reviews. |