And they shall beat their swords into plowshares
…(Isaiah, 2 :4)
Information from the Belgian
Pugwash Group: Ampere
The original editorial, entitled "Ampere,"
appeared in Plowshare on February 10, 2000
After about a year and a half of labour,
the 16 members of a special government commission have published their
report on the current situation and the future choices for electricity
production in Belgium. Titled "Analyse des Modes de Production
de l’Electricité et du Redéploiement des Energies"
(in short "AMPERE"), the report (in French, Dutch, English
and German, although not all chapters are given in all these languages)
is available from http://mineco.fgov.be/energy/ampere_commission.
The total of nearly 24 Gbytes (in format .jpg; use your acrobat reader!)
may be unloaded chapter by chapter; the 33 individual files run in size
from 26 to 4779 kbytes. It is, needless to say, fairly exhaustive in
coverage if discouraging in size. In the context of the Pugwash Conferences,
we have centred our analysis on those parts of the report concerning
the nuclear power plants.
The future electricity production will have to satisfy several constraints:
- the Government has committed itself to dismantle the nuclear power
plants when they reach the age of 40 years (which means around 2020/2025);
- the Kyoto protocol imposes a reduction of 7.5% on future CO2
emissions;
Belgium’s electrical power is currently produced mainly by nuclear
power plants (57.8% of the total of 81 TWh/yr in 1999); only France
(75%) and Lithuania (!) (73.1%) show a higher percentage; natural gas
comes in for 26.8%, solid fuel for 11.5%; the rest (3.9%) is spread
between hydropower, liquid fuels and "others" (?).
The current total CO2 emission is about 130 Mt/yr (12 t/yr.inhabitant,
as compared to a European average of 8 t/yr.inhabitant), 24 Mt/yr (300
g/kWhe) of which is related to electricity production (the rest is spread
about evenly between industry, transportation and household use). This
figure is fairly low for a developed country (600 g/kWh in the US and
Germany) and is directly related to the importance of nuclear electricity
in the total.
Population growth is almost negligible; the increase in future demand
is strictly related to the increase of energy consumption per capita,
which is estimated to lie between 0.5 and 3.5%/yr, with a probable average
of 1.5 to 2.0%/yr from now until 2020. This would mean an increase of
about 40% over the current consumption, or about 30 TWh/yr.
From the point of view of production costs vs. "external cost"
(i.e. mainly damage to the environment, actual or potential), the power
plants have been classified in four groups:
- Group 1, low production cost (< 2 BEF/kWh) and low external cost
(< 0.6 BEF/kWh): nuclear power plants, combined has/steam turbines,
onshore wind plants;
- Group 2, high production cost (between 2 and 4 BEF/kWh), low external
cost (< O.6 BEF/kWh): offshore and inland wind plants;
- Group 3, low production cost (< 2 BEF/kWh), high external cost
(between 0.6 and 1.2 BEF/kWh): coal-fired plants (all types), household
waste incinerators;
- Group 4, high production cost (2 to 4 BEF/kWh) and high external
cost (0.6 to 1.2 BEF/kWh): p.m., none listed.
The situation appears thus economically favourable to nuclear power
plants; however, several points must be addressed:
- Safety: the Commission is very terse on this point, apart from saying
that the safety of the Belgian nuclear plants is under very close
supervision … Fissile materials control, non-proliferation, operational
authorisations, protection of the labour force and the population,
civil liability, transport of nuclear materials, waste management,
accident emergency planning, are subject to very severe regulations.
- Other nuclear options: the report only says: Keeping open the
electronuclear option in no way implies any obligation to have recourse
to this technology. In democracy, this choice is strictly in the hands
of Parliament. It is evident that that the future technical developments
of the nuclear electricity production will have to be appreciated
on the basis of their own merit, i.e. operational safety, limitation
of the potential contaminated area in case of mishap, control of the
downstream flow of materials, particularly the conditioning and management
of waste products, as well as the technical production cost.
What are the final conclusions of the Commission? They are as follows:
Production:
- Demand side management, inception of a policy of control
of demand, information of the public, improved efficiency of equipment,
&c.;
- Development of wind power (onshore and offshore); the 2020
potential is estimated at 1.56 GW;
- Development of co-generation of power and heat: potential
2.3 GW;
- Biomass: potential 0.7 GW;
- Hydro power potential is estimated at 0.125 GW;
- Photo-voltaics could contribute 0.5 GW;
- Coal would be phased out.
The total production, taking into account the probable availability
of the supply and the fluctuations in the demand, would be close to
the 30 TWh/yr needed in 2020; nuclear power would be expected to fill
the gap until then.
Research and development should be emphasised in the following
fields:
- High-temperature materials,
- Wind power plants,
- Improvement of the distribution grid,
- CO2 capture,
- Nuclear safety,
- Photo-voltaics,
- Fuel cells.
What is not clear, however, is how the 47 TWh/yr currently being supplied
by the nuclear power plants will be replaced. The report has only received
scarce mention in the press, and no general discussion (discouraged,
no doubt, by the size of the document), either in the media or the public,
scientific or general, has taken place. We are curious to find out what,
if any, the reaction will be.
Publications:
- The Silent Shout, Proceedings of the Third Workshop on Science,
the Media and World Affairs Belgian Pugwash Group, Brussels
1989, 190 pp. EURO 15,- (paper-bound)
Contents:
- Origin and Nature of Pugwash, Current Activities of Pugwash,
Science and the Media.
- Response to the Surface Air Temperature to progressive Changes
in Greenhouse Gases in the 21st Century.
- Plutonium to produce Electricity.
- The constructive Force of Knowledge.
- Issues in the Popularisation of Science.
- Pugwash after the Dagomys Declaration: the environmental Crisis,
the Peace Movement and Problems in Communication.
- Modes of War and Modes of social Address: John McWethy reports
on SDI.
- Mass Media, public Opinion and Faith in the infinite Possibilities
of Science.
- Relating scientific Developments to public Concern.
- What is the Message and how can it be delelivered?
- Conclusions
- Appendices: The Pugwash Conferences – Pro-Pugwash and the Belgian
Pugwash Group – Pugwash Publications.
- Eliminer les Armes Nucléaires, Est-ce souhaitable ?
Est-ce réalisable ?, J. Rotblat, J. Steinberger, B.
Udgaonkar, F. Blackaby, éditeurs (traduction française
par V. Journé et A. L. Mechelynck de A Nuclear-Weapon-Free
World, Desirable? Feasible?, Westview Press, 1993), Transition,
Paris, 1997, 317 pp. EURO 30,- (paper bound)
Contenu :
- Un Monde dénucléarisé, présentation
générale.
- Aperçu historique: l’abolition des armes nucléaires,
premières tentatives.
- Un Monde dénucléarisé est-il souhaitable
? : les armes nucléaires après la guerre froide;
un monde sans armes nucléaires est-il souhaitable ?, est-il
nécessaire ? ; un monde dénucléarisé,
une approche éthico-stratégique.
- Un Monde dénucléarisé est-il réalisable
? : les problèmes technologiques de la vérification ;
le problème de l’émergence soudaine d’une puissance
nucléaire ; vérification par le citoyen ; établissement
d’un monde dénucléarisé : un traité
d’interdiction des armes nucléaires ; vérification
et mesures d’imposition dans un monde dénucléarisé ;
la sécurité internationale dans un monde dénucléarisé
; rendre illégales les armes nucléaires.
- Chemins d’accès possibles ver un monde dénucléarisé :
des armes nucléaires pour les Nations Unies ? ;Une
force militaire nucléaire internationale ; une approche
asymptotique vers un monde dénucléarisé.
- Etapes intermédiaires : comment se rapprocher d’un
monde dénucléarisé ?
- Nuclear Energy, Promise or Peril?, C. R. Hill,
G. Ripka, A. L. Mechelynck and B. C. C. van der Zwaan (editors), World
Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore/River Edge (NJ)/ London 1999,
281 pp. EURO 65,- (hard cover)
Contents:
- Nuclear Electricity, an aide-mémoire
- Preventing Climate Change: the Role of Nuclear Energy
- World Energy and Climate in the Next Century; Energy Efficiency
is the Key
- Problems and Prospects for Nuclear Power in India
- Energy in a Changing World
- Safety of Nuclear Power, some observations
- Nature and Management of Nuclear Wastes
- Storage of Nuclear Wastes
- Spent Fuel Management
- Nuclear Fuel Cycle, does reprocessing make sense?
- Why Reprocess?, a UK case study
- Disposal of Separated Plutonium Stocks
- Disposal of Plutonium
- Fast Neutron and Accelerator-driven Reactors
- Prospects for Accelerator-driven Reactors, the energy amplifier
- Risk of Proliferation and International Safeguards
- Risk of Proliferation, role of international agencies.
Reviewed by Pete Beck in Science and Public Affairs, October
2000, p. 26.
All prices are including VAT (6%). The above may be ordered by paying
the sum(s) indicated, plus BEF 100,- for postage, to A-L-M, s.a., Huldenberg,
702-0227205-33, mentioning the name of the desired publication(s). The
book(s) will be mailed to you within a week. Please indicate whether
you need an invoice and, in that case, mention your VAT number.
Eliminer les Armes nucléaires, &c. may also be purchased
direct from the publisher: Transition, 29 rue Jean-Jacques Rousseau,
F-75001, Paris. (The English-language edition is available from
Pugwash Conferences, pugwash@qmw.ac.uk
or from the publisher, Westview
Press, 36 Lonsdale Road, Summertown, Oxford OX2 7EW, UK). Nuclear
Power &c. may also be purchased direct from the publisher World
Scientific .
- André L. Mechelynck, Editor of Plowshare
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