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The 56th Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs

A Region in Transition: Peace and Reform in the Middle East
11-15 November 2006, Cairo, Egypt
Statement in English | Statement in Arabic | Statement in Farsi | Reports | Papers | Final Schedule | Photos | Participants | Presidential Address

A World In Transition: Towards a Better Common Present


Prof. M. S. Swaminathan
President, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Also available in Arabic - (322.8 KB pdf)

 

At the World Climate Conference held in Nairobi, Mr Kofi Annan referred to climate change induced by anthropogenic factors as the most serious among weapons of mass destruction. The Pugwash Movement has rightly included major non-nuclear threats to human security within its agenda. Extreme social and gender inequity, damage to basic life support systems like land, water, biodiversity and climate, as well as pandemics like HIV/AIDS have become important among such threats. At the same time, the nuclear peril has assumed an alarming dimension with the proliferation of Nuclear Weapons States and with the possibility of the emergence of nuclear weapon groups and individuals. It is therefore obvious that we must concentrate on the heartland of the Pugwash agenda and at the same time give due consideration to the other serious threats to peace and human wellbeing. In this address I shall briefly cover both the aspects.

The World Commission on Environment and Development, popularly known as the Brundtland Commission, titled its report presented in 1989 as “Our Common Future” to stress that irrespective of political frontiers, our ecological fate is intertwined. In my presidential address at the IUCN (World Conservation Union) general conference held at Perth, Australia in January 1990, I mentioned “There can be no happy common future, without a better common present”. For all of us, the present is a living reality. The future holds both threats and possibilities. If we ignore the present and allow the rich-poor, gender, genetic, digital and other divides to grow, there will be no peace. This is why the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals, particularly in the areas of hunger and poverty elimination and environment protection, are extremely important. UN MDG’s represent a Global Common Minimum programme for peace and security.

The major theme for the Cairo Conference is “Peace and Reform in the Middle East”. The following basic guiding principles have emerged from the discussion.

  • There can be no peace without justice; confidence in fair play is essential for ending a hostile mind-set
  • Fear of each other is the enemy of progress; creating the substrate conditions essential for building trust is the first step for meaningful dialogues
  • Avoid double standards – partisanship is the root cause of distrust, and the enemy of progress; today big powers are adopting double standards in their dealings with nations in the Middle East; this should end if peace is to prevail
  • Promote understanding and appreciation of diversity and pluralism among human societies, particularly in the areas of religious and political beliefs
  • Just peace with Palestine is the corner stone of peace in the Middle East. A serious consideration of the Arab initiative launched in Beirut in 2002 may provide a basis for multi-stakeholder dialogues ending in an agreement which would mark a win-win situation for all the countries in the region, and which could lead to a new Global Political Order characterized by the replacement of fear with friendship.

This year represents the Centenary of Mahatma Gandhi’s movement for a peaceful resolution of conflicts. This movement known as Satyagraha (fight for truth and justice based on the principle of non-violence) began a century ago in South Africa when Gandhi was thrown out of a first class compartment outside the Pietermaritzburg Railway Station just because he did not have a white skin. When we look back over the 20th Century, some of the remarkable achievements of humankind came from the adoption of the principle of non-violence in the resolution of internal and external conflicts. Some examples are:

  • Freedom from colonial rule in the Indian sub-continent (M K Gandhi)
  • End of Apartheid in South Africa (Nelson Mandela)
  • US Civil Rights Movement (Martin Luther King)
  • End of Marcos Dictatorship in the Philippines (Corazon Aquino)
  • End of Cold War and Fall of Berlin Wall (M Gorbachev)

In contrast, violence has always bred violence. We see it now in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and in some parts of Africa. Violence has not solved any problem but spreads anger, hatred and the desire for revenge. How can the world get back to the principles of Gandhi, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa in solving disputes? This is the real challenge of today. This is particularly a challenge for the Pugwash movement during its 50th Anniversary next year, when a major effort should be made to stress the futility of wars in solving disputes. General Dwight D Eisenhower, a famous war leader, made the following remarks as President of the United States on August 16, 1953, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who are hungry and are not fed, from those who are cold and are not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its labourers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children”. Quite often in history, men of war become the most ardent messengers of peace, since they know more than others that wars only lead to more wars.

In my address at Hiroshima last year, I had made a few suggestions for working towards a nuclear peril free world. Based on the discussions at this conference, I would like to propose a road map for achieving this goal consisting of seven major steps

  • All nations with nuclear weapons should adopt a legally mandatory policy of “no first use”, by 2007
  • Respect commitments to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ratify Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), conclude an equitable Fissile Materials Cut Off Treaty (FMCT), and end all research relating to the development of new nuclear weapons. Ensure that no nation sabotages the success of the NPT Review Conference of 2010
  • Conclude a Nuclear Weapons Convention outlining a time frame for getting to Zero by 2020
  • Avoid prospects for nuclear terrorism and adventurism by eliminating all unsecured nuclear fissile material and by implementing the concrete steps proposed by Pugwash for the elimination of highly enriched uranium; otherwise, there is risk of nuclear weapons individuals/ groups emerging in addition to nuclear weapons states
  • Because of the multi-dimensional threats posed to human security by climate change, and the consequent need for reducing green house gas emissions, interest and investment in nuclear power plants are growing. The civilian uses of atomic energy are likely to grow. Hence, the UN may convene an International Conference on the Civilian Uses of Atomic Energy, with particular reference to nuclear power. Such a conference should develop an agreed Code of Conduct to ensure that the non-military use of nuclear fuels does not get abused, and to further strengthen safeguards and the inspection and monitoring capacity of IAEA, to prevent the unsecured production of fissile materials
  • Democratic systems of governance are fast spreading in the world, which involve the holding of free and fair elections periodically. It would be useful to develop a Pugwash 50th Anniversary Appeal which calls upon all political parties in every country to include in their next election manifesto, a firm commitment to work for speedy nuclear disarmament and for the success of the 2010 NPT Review Conference. Public opinion ultimately shapes political action in democratic countries
  • Introduce in school curricula, information relating to the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, so as to bring home the immediate and long term disastrous impact of a nuclear war. Without a nuclear peril literacy movement, the climate for eliminating nuclear weapons and ending nuclear proliferation cannot be generated. Enlist the support of the mass media in launching a sustained movement for public understanding of the grave perils ahead. “If you cannot, there lies before you the risk of universal death”, to quote from the Russell – Einstein Manifesto,

Non-Nuclear Threats to Human Security

I would now like to refer briefly to Pugwash’s role in fighting non-nuclear threats to human security. The first among them is hunger which affects now nearly one billion children, women and men in our planet. The Roman Philosopher Seneca, articulated the threat of hunger to human security in the following words “A hungry person listens neither to reason nor religion, nor is bent by any prayer”. The present US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, mentioned in a talk at Des Moines on October 16, 2006 on the occasion of the World Food Day, that CIA monitors the status of crop production in different parts of the world, since potential hunger hot spots are breeding grounds for civilian unrest. Where hunger rules, peace cannot prevail. He thus included hunger and deprivation among the seeds of terrorism. (This talk was before he was designated as the Defence Secretary of USA and when he was President of the Texas A & M University).

Gandhi traced the roots of hunger to unemployment and the consequent lack of the purchasing power essential for economic access to balanced diet. He thus stressed the point, “where there is work, there is money and where there is money there is food”. This relationship between hunger and employment is an exceedingly important one since the world is now witnessing job-less economic growth. Job-less growth is joy-less growth to the hungry. The Doha Round of Negotiations of the World Trade Agreement is being referred to as the development round. If this concept has to become operational, it is essential that a Livelihood Security Box is inserted in the agreement. Such a box should contain provisions for the imposition of quantitative restrictions on imports by countries where 50 percent or more of the population depend upon agriculture for their livelihood security, whenever there is clear evidence that such imports will destroy local jobs or livelihoods in rural areas. Import of food by predominantly agricultural countries will have the same impact as importing unemployment. Therefore, a livelihood security impact assessment is essential in all development programmes particularly those relating to rural areas. The loss of livelihoods in villages leads to the unplanned migration of the asset-less poor to towns and cities resulting in the proliferation of urban slums. Urban slums again become the breeding grounds for violence, crime and spread of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Therefore, agricultural prosperity is essential for peace and security in predominantly rural nations. For example in India, 70 percent of the population still remains in rural areas where the main occupation is crop and animal husbandry, fisheries, forestry, and agro-processing. In contrast, hardly 3 to 4 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their economic wellbeing in industrialized nations. Industrialized countries should hence view trade not mearly in monetary terms but in its human dimension.

Another important threat to human security arises from the spread of invasive alien species. The SARS epidemic and the avian influenza caused by the H5N1 strain in poultry are recent examples of the harm that may arise from such invasive species. It has become important to ensure that every nation has a well developed biosecurity system. Sanitary and phytosanitary measures also need strengthening in developing countries. Biosecurity is also essential to safeguard innocent civilians who may become victims of bio-perils and harmful Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). As far as GMO’s are concerned, every nation has to develop a National Biotechnology Regulatory Authority capable of ensuring the safe and responsible use of genetic manipulation techniques at the molecular level. Such an Authority should assure the public as well as the political leaders and mass media that risks and benefits are being measured in an objective and transparent manner. Molecular genetics provides uncommon opportunities for not only producing new vaccines and drugs, but also crops with built-in resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. Therefore, developing countries in particular should take advantage of frontier technologies including biotechnology and information and communication technology for the purpose of achieving accelerated food, nutrition, health and livelihood security.

Population rich but land hungry countries like China and India have no option except to produce more food grains and other agricultural commodities per units of land and water under conditions of diminishing per capita availability of arable land and irrigation water, and of expanding biotic and abiotic stresses. Such a challenge can be met only by harnessing the best in frontier technologies and blending them with traditional ecological prudence. Ecotechnologies for an Ever-green revolution should be the bottom line of the strategy to shape the future of food production. Conservation farming and green agriculture (i.e., agriculture based on ecotechnologies like integrated pest management, integrated nutrient supply, scientific land care and water management, etc.) are the pathways to an ever-green revolution.

Making Hunger History

  • In 2001-03, there were 854 million undernourished people in the world – 820 mn in the developing countries, 25 mn in the transition countries and 9 mn in the industrialized countries
  • In the Asia and Pacific, the number of undernourished has reverted to an increasing trend over the latter part of the decade, although the prevalence has continued to decline. The Asia and Pacific has 68% of the developing world population and 64% of its undernourished
  • In the near East, North Africa and Sub Saharan Africa, the number of undernourished have increased. The greatest challenge is in the Sub Saharan region with one in three people lacking access to sufficient food. (State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2006, FAO).

It is now possible to end hunger through concurrent attention to food availability, access and absorption in the body. The national strategy for making hunger history should pay attention to both food and non-food factors. Non-food factors like clean drinking water, environmental hygiene and primary education and health care are equally important. Lack of access to clean drinking water is a major cause of diarrhea and intestinal infections. But for the oral rehydration therapy, mortality of children from diarrhea will be high. It is the duty of every country to make sure that at the minimum the UN Millennium Development Goal of reducing hunger and poverty by half is achieved by 2015.

Bridging the Divides

Starting with the industrial revolution in Europe triggered by the invention of the Steam Engine in 1780 by James Watt, technology has been an important factor in the rich-poor divide. If technology has enlarged economic, social and gender divides in the past, the challenge now is to enlist technology as an important instrument for achieving social and gender equity. If technology is to serve this purpose, access to it must be based on the principle of social inclusion. The Antyodaya or unto the last principle of Mahatma Gandhi is the pathway for inclusive economic growth. While Intellectual Property Rights are important for giving incentives for investment and innovation, we should ensure that discoveries of great importance to human food and health security are available to every one who will benefit from them. Access to such technologies should not be based only on the capacity of the individual to pay. There must be a provision in National Laws for compulsory licensing of rights in the case of drugs and crop and animal strains which are important for the poor.

Modern ICT is a powerful tool for bridging the gender and knowledge divides. Such technologies comprising the integrated use of the internet, cable TV, community radio and the cell phone should be brought to the service of the poor, on the principle of a last mile and last person connectivity. ICT can serve as the mother for ending all divides and hence it itself should not become one more of the divisive factors.

5th Pugwash Conference on HIV/AIDS

In recent years, the Pugwash movement has expanded its definition of threats to human security to include HIV/AIDS. Five conferences have been held so far to deliberate on the subject. The last one was held at the M S Swaminathan Research Foundation in Chennai, India in April 2006.

Some of the figures relating to the HIV/AIDS pandemic are frightening

  • Over 11000 new HIV infections occurred each day in 2005
  • More than 95% are in low and middle income countries
  • About 1500 are in children under 15 years of age
  • About 10000 are in adults aged 15 years and older of whom:
    • over 50% are among women
    • over 40% are among young people (15-24)

The 5th Pugwash Conference on HIV/AIDS held at the M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai, India, from 7-9 April 2006 focused on the theme “Sharing of Experiences, What Works?’. 52 participants from 8 countries participated.

Experts from “first wave” countries where the epidemic struck first and with great intensity (e.g. South Africa, Kenya and Uganda) and those from “second wave” countries where the epidemic threatens to spiral out of control (e.g. India) came together to exchange successful and replicable strategies for the prevention, management and mitigation of HIV and AIDS.

Based on the experience gained in Africa and India, the following basic requisites for success in control measures were identified

  • Political support and commitment
  • Recognizing HIV as potential threat to development
  • Discussing sexuality and behaviour openly
  • “Coming out” reduces stigma
  • Free supply anti-retroviral drugs to the needy

The recent tragic trial of five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor in Libya on the suspicion of infecting children with HIV is an indication of the fear and emotion attached with this dreaded disease. Pugwash will have to introduce sanity and objectivity in dealing with this and the other serious health pandemics.

I mentioned earlier that climate change possess a great threat to human security.

The available data bring out the following scenario

  • All countries will be affected by climate change, but the poorest countries will suffer most
  • Average temperatures could rise by 5° C from pre-industrial levels if climate change goes unchecked
  • Warming of 3° or 4° C will result in many millions more people being flooded. By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, and more frequent floods and drought
  • Warming of 4° C or more is likely to seriously affect global food production
  • Warming of 2° C could leave 15-40% species facing extinction

Economics of Climate Change: According to the calculation of Sir Nicholas Stern of UK (October 2006), the following will be the cost of containing damage to climate

  • Climate Change could cause the Global Economy almost $7 trillion by 2050 – equal to a 20% fall in growth – if no action is taken on green house emissions
  • Taking action now could cost just 1% - $350 billion – of Global GDP

Kyoto Protocol

  • The Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change was negotiated by over 100 countries in December 1997
  • The agreement would require 38 industrialised countries to reduce the emissions of six major greenhouse gases by 5.2 percent during the 2008-2012 period
  • The Kyoto Protocol follows the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, which established the objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases “at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system”

Unfortunately, the Kyoto Protocol is yet to be implemented inspite of the growing awareness of the dangers of inaction.

Carbon Trading

  • Terrestrial carbon sequestration is a viable, readily available approach for offsetting fossil fuel emissions by enhancing the carbon stored in soils, vegetation and long-lived products
  • Credits or offsets can come from reductions or removals (sequestration)
  • The Structure of the carbon market system is being developed
  • There are number of uncertainties and risks associated with the carbon market at present. There is a need for a carbon trading system based on real, verifiable credits

Global warming and associated events like sea level rise and the more frequent occurrence of tsunami necessitate anticipatory efforts in developing bioshields and genetic shields which can mitigate the impact of sea water inundation and temperature rise. 

50th Anniversary of Pugwash

We are sorry we are missing Jo Rotblat at this meeting. I would like to quote a couple of sentences from his speech while accepting the Nobel Peace Prize along with Pugwash in December 1993.

“I do not believe that the people of the world would accept a policy that is inherently immoral and likely to end in catastrophe… We have to move forward from a now outdated security system based on nuclear deterrence and alliances, to one based on cooperation and allegiance to humankind”

2007 marks the 50th Anniversary of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs initiated at a meeting held in Thinker’s Lodge, Pugwash village, Novo Scotia, Canada at the invitation of Sir Cyrus Eaton. The famous Russell - Einstein manifesto was commended to the inhabitants of Planet Earth on that occasion. I would like to suggest that the activities we may consider for commemorating the 50th Anniversary of this movement for a nuclear peril free world may include the following:

  • A Nuclear Peril Free World constitutes the heartland of the Pugwash Mission and hence we must redouble our efforts in the area
  • Canadian Pugwash Group, Pugwash Peace Exchange and the Pugwash Park Commission will commemorate the 50th anniversary of Pugwash by organizing a workshop on Revitalising Nuclear Disarmament from July 5-7, 2007 at Thinkers Lodge, Pugwash. This provides an occasion for the issue of a Pugwash Appeal to all the political parties in the World and to all the members of the UN stressing the importance and urgency of universal and total nuclear disarmament
  • Initiate a Strategic Planning Exercise to strengthen the catalytic role of Pugwash in promoting mutual trust and dialogue.
  • Provide a platform for partnership among like-minded organizations leading to the birth of a global alliance for a World free of weapons of mass-destruction
  • Promote a Media Coalition for a better public understanding of the perils of status quo in the resolution of chronic disputes, with priority going to justice to Palestine.
  • Assist in establishing in association with Pugwash National Groups and International Student/ Young Pugwash a Global College of Joseph Rotblat Fellows who will become the torch bearers of the Pugwash mission
  • In cooperation with UNESCO, get the Russell – Einstein Manifesto included in school text books all over the World.

The Secretary General of the United Nations Mr Kofi Annan in a Guest Editorial in Science (7 March 2003) made the following significant remarks

“But no bridge that science might build across the gaps between rich and poor is strong enough to withstand the force of violence and war. If science is to reach its full potential and draw on the great minds from every country, we must do more to end and prevent conflict. Scientists themselves have a key role to play here, too. The Pugwash Conference movement, launched by the Russell-Einstein Manifesto of 1955, brought Russian and Western scientists together for more than 40 years to develop common understandings of the dangers of nuclear war and ways of reducing them, and in recent years has constructed a strong dialogue between North and South on the problems of development. “Lab-to-lab” cooperation also helped to lay the groundwork for cooperative nuclear disarmament and arms control between Russia and the United States after the Cold War. Peace making and peace building should never be the exclusive preserve of diplomats and politicians”

May I conclude by quoting Sir Joseph Rotblat, who was the very embodiment of the spirit and mission of Pugwash for 50 years.

“Let me remind you that the basic human value is life itself, the most important of human rights is the right to live. It is the duty of scientists to see to it that, through their work, life will not be put into peril, but will be made safe and its quality enhanced”.

Let us make 2007, which marks the Centenary of Gandhi’s Satyagraha, and the 50th Anniversary of Pugwash a significant milestone in the quest for a world of peace and harmony within humankind, and between humankind and nature.