 |
 |
|
||
|
|
|
Pugwash Meeting No. 249 THE 49th Annual Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs met in Rustenburg, South Africa from September 7 to 13, 1999, under the title “Confronting the Challenges of the 21st Century.” Being the final Pugwash conference of the 20th century, it was highly fitting that the 49th Conference was hosted by South Africa, whose people have shown remarkable initiative and courage in both managing the difficult transition from apartheid to democracy and in voluntarily dismantling the country’s nuclear weapons capability and forswearing a security policy based on nuclear deterrence. The Conference was attended by 123 participants from 49 countries,
including 24 members of Student/Young Pugwash. As is customary with
Pugwash, participants took part as individuals, not as representatives
of their governments or institutions. The opening plenary of the 49th Conference began with welcoming messages from UN Secretary General Kofi Annan; Salim Ahmed Salim, Secretary General of the Organization of African Unity; Kader Asmal, South African Minister of Education; and Nelson Mandela, former President of the Republic of South Africa. Michael Atiyah, President of Pugwash, responded to these messages, and Martin Kaplan presented the obituaries of deceased Pugwashites. George Rathjens then gave the Secretary General’s address to the conference, focusing in particular on the important and sensitive interactions between sovereignty, intervention, and global security. The first guest speaker, Waldo Stumpf, Chief Executive Officer of the Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa, addressed the topic of “South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Program: From Deterrence to Dismantlement.” In providing a fascinating overview of the factors that influenced South Africa’s decisions to first acquire and then eliminate its nuclear weapons capability, Stumpf’s address was a stimulating and encouraging example of how political will can overcome entrenched interests and “old ways of thinking.” Next, the conference was addressed by Moushira Mahmoud Khattab, Ambassador of the Arab Republic of Egypt to South Africa, whose talk on “The African Renaissance” movingly described a number of positive social and cultural trends throughout the continent. This was followed by Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies, South Africa, who gave a comprehensive analysis of “The Security Context in Southern Africa and Beyond.” At the plenary session on Friday, September 10, participants were addressed by Jacob G. Zuma, Deputy President of South Africa, and B.S. Ngubane, Minister of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology. Both Deputy President Zuma and Minister Ngubane provided fascinating insights into the achievements of and challenges facing the South African government on the eve of the 21st century. Other plenary sessions included a panel discussion on Light Weapons and Conflict in Africa, involving Jackie Selebi, Director General of the Foreign Ministry of South Africa, Jeffrey Boutwell (US), Martinho Chachiua (Mozambique), Jacob Kamenju (Kenya), and Peter Lock (Germany). A panel discussion on Sovereignty and Intervention: International Perspectives, was chaired by Catherine Kelleher and included panelists Alexander Nikitin (Russia), Derek Powell (South Africa), George Rathjens (US), and Jasjit Singh (India). In his presidential address, Michael Atiyah highlighted the need for the UN to deal with the abuses that take place in many states. He concluded that a world based on injustice can never be at peace. The Conference Working Groups that met in parallel closed sessions focused on the following topics: (1) Nuclear Weapon-Free World, (2) Emerging Security Threats: Africa and Globally, (3) Development, (4) Environment, and (5) International Governance. The following statement has been informed by the working group and plenary session discussions, but its formulation is the responsibility of the Pugwash Council alone, and the statement has not been reviewed by other Conference participants. The statement is not intended to be an exhaustive account of the working group discussions; rather, it presents conclusions and recommendations on which the Council agrees and which we believe important to communicate to a wider audience. Summaries of the discussions of the working groups have been prepared by rapporteurs and will be included as part of the published Proceedings of the 49th Conference, along with the texts of the speeches from the plenary sessions and the papers presented in the Working Groups.
A special plenary, chaired by Michael Atiyah, was convened on the unfolding crisis in East Timor, where the international community was witnessing massive violence by Indonesian paramilitary groups, and possibly the Indonesian Army (TNI) itself, against the majority population of East Timor. Recognizing the unfolding human tragedy in East Timor, the Pugwash Council sent an urgent message to Kofi Annan, calling upon the UN Secretary General to “use all the means in your power to accelerate proposed action, or take new initiatives, to prevent the situation from turning into an utter human catastrophe.” The Pugwash Council sent similar pleas to the UN Security Council, to the heads of government of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) then meeting in Auckland, New Zealand, and to President B.J. Habibie of Indonesia. As co-recipients of the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize, Sir Joseph Rotblat and Pugwash joined Jose Ramos Horta of East Timor and other fellow Nobel Laureates in urging the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission to serve notice on President Habibie that “all non-humanitarian aid to Indonesia will be halted until Jakarta agrees to the deployment of international peace enforcing troops in East Timor.” Several days later, President Habibie announced that Indonesia would accept a UN peacekeeping force, and negotiations began on the logistics of deploying such a force to East Timor, but the outcome of these talks as of the final day of the conference, September 13, was anything but clear.
DESPITE the example set by South Africa in being the first country in the world to have voluntarily renounced nuclear weapons, there continues to be a serious and dangerous deadlock in the nuclear arms control process. Start II remains unratified by the Russian Duma, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has not yet entered into force, nuclear weapons continue to be a central component of the military strategies of the nuclear weapons powers, both declared and undeclared, and political pressures are building for the development and deployment of ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems that risk undermining the ABM Treaty, the cornerstone of the US-Russian strategic relationship and the foundation of the global nuclear arms control regime. If deployed, BMD systems are likely to lead to offensive countermeasures and nuclear proliferation. To break this impasse and re-start a process of substantial cuts in nuclear forces on the path toward a nuclear weapon-free world, the Pugwash Council calls upon the nuclear powers to ratify currently signed agreements, to de-alert their strategic nuclear forces (provided this does not stimulate increased force levels), and to withdraw and eliminate all tactical nuclear weapons stationed outside of national territory. The Council also calls upon the signatories of the CTBT, most especially the US, Russia, and China, to ratify the treaty as soon as possible. In addition, all states required to ratify the CTBT should do so to ensure the treaty’s entry into force at an early date. Recent developments in South Asia are particularly disturbing. The Pugwash Council is concerned over what may be a spiraling nuclear competition between India and Pakistan, and calls upon both countries to formalize their unilateral moratoria on testing by concluding a formal bilateral agreement; to not operationally deploy their nuclear weapons; to keep fissile material stocks to a minimum; and to negotiate a “restraint regime” in South Asia covering both nuclear and conventional forces that could be enlarged to include neighboring areas. More broadly, all countries of the world should work toward the elaboration and implementation of nuclear weapons-free zones, including the Treaty of Pelindaba encompassing Africa and the proposed nuclear weapons-free zone for Central Asia. Establishing such zones covering the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Straits, and Central and East Europe, could provide substantial benefits in reducing tensions and limiting the possibility of a conventional conflict escalating to the use of nuclear weapons. In the Middle East, the objective is a zone free of all weapons of mass destruction. We urge that the forthcoming Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) agree on concrete measures, such as sharply reducing world
stockpiles of Highly-Enriched Uranium (HEU), that could reinforce the
non-proliferation regime.
HUMAN security at the end of the 20th century
is threatened by traditional military weapons, including anti-personnel
landmines (APM) and small arms and light weapons, and by chemical and
biological weapons, as well as by emerging threats that range from international
terrorism and organized crime to the ravages of the HIV/AIDS virus to
the instability of civil society caused by massive refugee flows. To combat the lethal trade in small arms and light weapons, a multi-pronged approach will be needed that imposes greater controls on supplier states while also addressing the social and economic factors that make light weapons such a valuable commodity in poorer societies. The international community can do its part by providing adequate resources and training for more effective border control, policing, and weapons destruction programs in the countries affected. These policies can only work, however, if they are paired with community-based reconciliation and development programs that reduce the cultural, social, and economic significance of possessing a weapon in the first place. The pairing of development and security policies is also crucially important for dealing with the international refugee crisis spawned by widespread intrastate conflict. Millions of refugees in Africa, and many more millions worldwide, represent both a humanitarian crisis of the first order as well as a continuing source of instability and conflict. Two initiatives that could address both problems would be the relocation of refugees away from the borders of countries in conflict and the use of international peacekeeping forces to separate legitimate refugees from armed militias operating in refugee camps. Anti-personnel landmines, the continued worldwide trade in major conventional weapons, and the threat of chemical and biological terrorism represent different challenges for the international community. Despite the entry into force, in March 1999, of the Ottawa Convention, landmines continue to be used in conflict (as in Kosovo and Angola) and continue to be deployed. Major powers such as the United States, Russia, and China, have not yet signed the convention. In addition to pressing these states to join the ban on APMs, the Pugwash Council urges the scientific community to contribute to research to improve landmine detection and removal technologies. We also urge the international community to devote more resources to currently effective demining efforts. With regard to the danger of chemical and biological weapons, Pugwash urges the early completion of negotiations, long underway, for an effective verification protocol for the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention.
ATTEMPTS to eradicate pervasive poverty while promoting human rights must be predicated on providing basic education and health services, an adequate diet, suitable housing and the other basic amenities of life. Such goals can only be achieved, however, within a framework of development policies that recognize the importance of both increased per capita economic growth and a reasonably equitable distribution of aggregate income, as well as the building of a societal framework characterized by democratic rights and ‘civility’ in the broadest sense of the term. These aims would be strengthened by the establishment of an international convention to enforce human rights, which could help reduce the likelihood of civil conflicts arising from unacceptable actions by political authorities in denying such rights to large segments of their population. The creation of the International Criminal Court is one positive step of many that will be needed to implement international legal norms that protect basic liberties and the integrity of the individual. A related issue is that of the “borderless world,” especially with respect to the movement of scientific and technological talent and knowledge across borders and the implication of this for developing countries. The scientific and academic community must take the lead in formulating policies that address some negative effects of the “brain drain” phenomenon, where developing countries risk perpetual second-class status in the knowledge economy of the 21st century. Such policies should not, however, infringe on the right of individuals to freedom of movement. Access to capital and related technical assistance is another top priority for developing countries. Current flows of official development assistance and foreign direct investment have largely bypassed Africa, which receives only about 5 percent of all such aid to developing countries. New sources of capital investment, including proposals for a carbon tax and other forms of international taxation (e.g., the Tobin tax on international currency transactions and the use of global biological and mineral rights in the oceans, international airline flights and shipping), need to be seriously evaluated if development policies are to succeed in those poorest countries that are also heavily indebted and are experiencing net outflows of capital. In our increasingly integrated global marketplace, foreign direct investment must also be far more sensitive to equitable standards regarding minimal wages, safety and other working conditions, and the environmental consequences of siting commercial enterprises in developing countries. Such investment also needs to address the creation of environmentally-benign, low cost energy, transportation, and communications infrastructures that can support a society’s health and education as well as economic needs. Recognizing the need for a transformative change in the global economic/financial system that can help meet these goals, the Pugwash Council supports the concept of conducting feasibility studies on the launching of an international initiative that could have a short-term payoff in providing education, health, and energy services for the desperately poor living in rural areas. The utilization of rapidly advancing communications and other technologies toward this end would be only the first step toward achieving a more just and equitable world, a world where many of the fundamental sources of today’s conflicts have been eradicated.
ENVIRONMENTAL insecurity and conflict stem from causes that are both historically ancient and as new as the 21st century. While the potentially dire ramifications of global climate change may not be known in the near future, throughout history water supply has been a major source of conflict between nations sharing the same hydrological basin, and sometimes between regions of the same nation. The unequal geographical distribution of water resources between states and regions, as well as varying precipitation levels at different seasons of the year, continues to affect strongly both human development and social conflict. Water resources and systems have been both targets and tools of conflict. Although some global agreements on shared water use have been reached (the 1997 Convention on the Non-Navigational Use of Shared International Watercourses), enforcement is difficult. Bilateral and multilateral agreements over water supply and use offer alternatives for equitable sharing of resources, if enforcement mechanisms are included and such agreements are precise and comprehensive enough to take into account, for example, extreme conditions such as drought. The direct and indirect influence of human activity on water availability and flow, whether through the construction of dams and reservoirs or through agricultural use, deforestation, soil erosion, residential and recreational uses and the draining of swamp lands, must be better understood. Africa faces special regional problems and challenges in this regard, including irregular and unreliable rainfall, high temperatures, and weakness of support systems, as well as political instability. We recognize that, in promoting sound development policies for Africa, reliance on dams and reservoirs as a renewable energy source is often preferred over coal-fired and other CO2 emitting energy stations. Yet large scale dam projects raise their own set of problems, including damage to local ecosystems, displacement of populations, loss of water, disruption of aquatic life, mosquito and pest proliferation, downstream problems from changes in water flow, regional or international disputes, and the vulnerability of dams during wartime or in case of earthquakes and geological instability. Accordingly, it is imperative that the scientific community analyzes all relevant factors inherent in the construction of major dams, including the proposed second dam 100 km below the Cahora Bassa on the Zambesi River in Mozambique, and the proposed Ilisu dam on the Tigris River in Turkey. More research is needed to evaluate the social and ecological consequences of these projects in the overall context of the benefits promised for energy generation and irrigation. In particular, the Pugwash Council calls on the parties concerned to ensure the completion of thorough analyses of water use patterns, the need for adequate staffing and financing of the water operations, the strengthening of existing bilateral and multilateral water conventions, as well as greater sensitivity to the environmental, social, cultural and political implications of large water projects. Looking ahead, the scientific community is continually seeking to evaluate the political, economic and security implications of global climate change. Under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the industrialized countries alone – the so-called ‘Annex I’ countries – have the obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The developing countries have, on average, low emissions per capita because the poorer part of their population consumes energy at a very low level, far below that of the industrialized countries (while recognizing that developed country lifestyles are imitated by the richest segments of the population in the developing world). A flexibility mechanism, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), has been put forward to allow the industrialized countries to meet part of their reduction commitments by investing in projects in the developing countries, where reductions can be achieved at a lower cost. This issue raises some important equity concerns; for instance, the CDM negotiation has reflected a bias towards the interests of the industrial countries for low cost-abatement opportunities, to the detriment of the development priorities of the developing countries. Therefore, we recommend that this mechanism be controlled so as to ensure and promote the improvement of the living conditions of the poorer part of the population in these countries. Industrial initiatives, in addition to national and international legislation, could prove beneficial as well. Finally, as the required substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions will entail some modifications of the consumption patterns, it will not be possible to meet them without the cooperation of the general public. As with the issue of water management, more information, education, and media efforts will be needed to mobilize the necessary worldwide support.
INCREASING global interdependence, characterized by a rapidly changing world economy and advances in modern telecommunications, have made the world a very different place than from when the United Nations was founded in 1945. Today, the UN is called upon to respond to a host of new challenges, not the least of which is the increase in civil wars and the persecution of minorities. There are numerous proposals for transforming UN operations, infrastructure, and financing. These include changing the composition of the Security Council to eliminating or altering the veto power of its permanent members. There are similar recommendations for changing the voting system of the General Assembly (perhaps by regions instead of countries) or for establishing a popularly elected world parliament. Whatever changes are finally adopted, we applaud the efforts of the UN Secretary General to increase the efficiency of the organization and to increase its transparency and accountability. One key element of this reform effort will be strengthening the UN’s financial resources. Several proposals have been advanced in this regard, including various forms of international taxation (e.g., the Tobin tax) and levies on states in proportion to their arms expenditures. In the meantime, the Council calls upon all member states to meet their budgetary obligations to the UN. As evidenced by the crises in Kosovo and East Timor, there is a demonstrated need for the United Nations to mount timely and successful peacekeeping operations. The Pugwash Council believes that comprehensive analyses should be made of the feasibility of creating an effective, rapid-response UN military force, and elaborating the political and legal mechanisms for its use. In crisis situations where a larger force is needed, the UN could call upon earmarked national forces under the provisions of Article 43. In terms of global stability, however, far more effort needs to be invested in preventive action, of resolving conflicts before they erupt into war. With adequate financing, a reformed and strengthened UN, as well as regional organizations recognized by the UN, could become more active in mediating disputes and in stationing peacekeepers so as to allow successful conflict resolution negotiations to take place. As shown by the African experience in the 1990s, the legacy of colonialism, superpower rivalry during the Cold War, and continued economic dependence and poverty, have all contributed to spawning terribly destructive internal conflicts. These conflicts also reveal, however, the extent to which nepotism and corruption have undermined effective governance across the continent. As demonstrated by the evolution of South Africa from apartheid to democracy, these are some of the many issues that need to be addressed in order to realize the goal of an African Renaissance in the 21st century. All over the world, the international community confronts the tensions between its obligations to protect human rights and threatened minorities with the historical principles of state sovereignty. The Pugwash Council believes strongly that the United Nations and regional organizations can play an even more effective role in this area in the next century. Ultimately, the Council considers that an important element of state sovereignty – the capability to wage war – should be eliminated. An important step in this direction would be to make the first use of nuclear weapons a crime against humanity, which in turn would support the process of achieving a nuclear-free world.
|
