The group recognizes that
the North Korean nuclear crisis poses a serious challenge to the NPT
regime and the future regional security. The group had discussions
based on our consensus on (1) the nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, (2)
peaceful dialogue for opening a window of opportunity, (3) peace &
stability of East Asia. The group agrees that any nuclear test would
be an unmitigated disaster. The group discussed the following issues.
North
Korean Nuclear Crisis and the 4th 6-Party Talks
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The group
paid much attention to understanding Pyongyang's perception regarding
the nuclear crisis. Pyongyang suffers from a severe sense of insecurity
and betrayal due to various incidents such as nuclear blackmailing
during the Korean War and a potentially offensive posture of the
US forces against N. Korea, accession to the NPT upon the Soviet's
inducement, and economic crisis. Such severe circumstances and isolation
can easily formulate an autistic perception. Thus it is important
for the 6-party talks to formulate convincing measures to have N.
Korea feel easy and safe.
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Pyongyang
sincerely wishes political recognition of its regime particularly
from the US in the form of security guarantee, and eventually the
peace treaty. Since rapprochement with the US and Japan is regarded
to be yet remote, two Koreas would go ahead with mutual recognition
of their respective sovereignty, which is to be followed by proactive
economic and industrial engagement. The time is ripe for the North-South
rapprochement.
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Since
the early 1990s, the N. Korean nuclear crisis has gone through a
number of lost opportunities, misjudgement out of distrust, lack
of communication, lack of coherent policy and divided decision-making
among the governments involved. Geo-politics of the region also
complicate the situation.
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An enriched
uranium issue could make a formidable bottleneck to a peaceful diplomatic
solution. Pyongyang is not ready to discuss on the issue in the
6-Party talks, because complete denuclearization is synonymous to
disarmament in Pyongyang's eyes. Thus, the 6-party talks might put
aside the enriched uranium issue. For the US, on the other hand,
N. Korean attitude on the uranium issue is a benchmark of Pyongyang's
sincerity on denuclearization. Accepting N. Korea as de facto
nuclear weapon state would make a fatal precedent and damage to
the NPT regime, which might cause dangerous spill-over effects on
other parts of East Asia and elsewhere.
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The
Japanese abduction issue is a highly sensitive issue, triggered
by both Pyongyang's and Tokyo's miscalculation. The historical legacy
also affects the issue. Neither Pyongyang nor Tokyo has a clear
definition of the issue's resolution. The issue might well be addressed
in a broader context of human rights and welfare issue.
Sino-Japan
Relation and East Asian Security
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The group
agreed upon the importance of the 'shared future' across national
boundaries in dealing with the legacy of history. The historical
legacy and Japan's war crime issue have surged frictions with China
and Korea with almost regular intervals in the past two decades,
such as Yasukuni Shrine and a history textbook. But recent incidents
show that such historical legacy issues are now linked to geo-politics
such as territorial disputes. In Japan, the war legacy used to be
an issue of ideological confrontation between the conservative and
radical liberals. A particular war memory is to be balanced with
relativity. For instance, in the past, the Hiroshima memorial museum
had exhibitions of only the atom-bomb victims. Now exhibition on
Japan's past invasion war is added to give a more balanced picture
of the war. Urged are intellectual efforts to learn a universal
lesson from particular historical incidents.
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Politicization
of war memories is a dangerous deed. While war memories tend to
stay emotional, governments tend to exploit war memories for their
political agenda, which in turn harm their foreign policies and
strategy by narrowing their own policy-options. Rather, more efforts
are to be made toward the 'shared future'.
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Sino-Japan
relations have been susceptible to partial perceptions affected
by the war legacy. History shows that improved mutual-perceptions
upon objective understanding of historical facts help solving major
diplomatic and territorial issues, as was the case with the US-China
relations in the 1970s. Thus, reconciliation between China and Japan
is vitally important to achieve a win-win situation on many pending
issues between the two countries.
Impacts of
the energy issue in East Asian Security
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China-Japan
competition over energy intensifies. For instance, the two countries
are competing over oil in Iran/the Middle East and Russia. China
is vigorously approaching to the Middle East for energy deals. Japan's
alleged Azadegan oil business with Iran was constrained by the US
for the concern over Iran's uranium enrichment program. Fossil fuel
replacement by other energies is yet remote.
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The energy
issue affects geo-politics and strategy. In China, the energy issue
is related to geo-political issues such as Taiwan and the Malacca
Strait. Like Japan in the 1970s, China is expanding its diplomatic
scope for securing its energy sources to diversify its oil supply
sources into the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia. China-Japan
competition over oil of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia is noteworthy.
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Surging
energy consumption and demands in the region could cause a risk
of energy conflicts. There is already a sign of the risk in the
East China Sea, Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. For oil business with Iran,
Beijing has stated is opposition to bringing the issue of Iran's
uranium enrichment program before the UN Security Council. Energy
issues can inflict negative impacts on security issues, if not addressed
properly.
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There
is a possibility of regional cooperation on other related issues,
such as technological cooperation for liquid natural gas and anti-pollution
devices, an area in which Japan is pre-eminent. There has been much
discussion, albeit with little concrete actions, on Northeast Asian
energy cooperation, connecting by pipelines Mongolia, Russia, China,
two Koreas and Japan.
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Anticipated
shortage of oil resources prompts efforts of nuclear energy, which
has many side-effects. Nuclear energy technology transfer, as dual-use
technology, should be scrutinized carefully.
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Finally,
the group discussed on China's nuclear weapon policy, regarding
a PLA major-general's recent controversial remarks on China's no-first-use
policy. The Chinese government thereafter reiterated its non-first-use
policy, however. De-emphasizing of nuclear weapons and improvement
of the security milieu are necessary.
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