Dear Friends,

Many on this list have contributed very generously to the Foundation's efforts and will surely want to know from time to time where things stand. So here is another update on the earthquake situation, and of the relief
work undertaken by the Eqbal Ahmad Foundation with the help of faculty and students of the physics department at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, as well as several others.

As bitter cold sets into the mountains, we have had to make a tactical shift of goals. We had initially thought of reconstructing 100 houses but this looks difficult. Nor does it seem the most important thing to do now. There are 2 strong reasons compelling us to think afresh. First, at current temperatures, cement does not set well (or at all) and even if we could buy enough cement blocks and other materials, they could not be used until April except at low altitudes. For all the talk we hear about pre-fabricated houses, we were unable to see any in the areas we have gone to and so that too is a dead end. Second, the most urgent thing now is to protect the maximum number of people from snow, rain, and biting cold winds.

We have become a little more ambitious than before and are spreading the net wider. Thanks to a massive international effort, we see that everyone now has a tent and also that thousands more are on the way. But even the best winterized tents (and most are not) will be hopelessly inadequate as winter progresses. This demands that our efforts should be concentrated on building primitive temporary shelters constructed from corrugated metal sheets that are screwed or nailed on to a wooden frame. These metal sheets, as well as the wood, will be reusable in the spring (without loss of materials) for construction of permanent houses. Some people have
started living within tents placed within our shelters to protect them against the elements. Each shelter costs about $300 (minus wood) and we hope to set up several hundred shelters with the money currently at our disposal. Typically these shelters house 6-8 people of a family.

Various members of our team have chosen different earthquake zones as their principal responsibility. They have made separate visits. Abdul Hameed Nayyar, Hajra Ahmad, and I returned yesterday after a 2-day visit to Chikar, Bagh, and Rawalakot. Working through reliable local groups and individuals is fundamental to our efforts, but proper selection and such monitoring visits are crucial for ensuring that the most deserving get the materials we have obtained for them. Also, prevent pilferage of resources is an important consideration. This was Dr. Nayyar's third visit to these areas. His detailed report is appended below.

I would like to share some additional observations with you and elicit your response to item 2 below:

1) Two months later, the visible devastation has diminished but only slightly. Thousands of collapsed structures and buildings lie abandoned, and rubble has been cleared only in a few places. One does not see large
scale reconstruction anywhere. But life is limping back towards a kind of normalcy. Aftershocks are becoming weaker but people are still too frightened to sleep indoors even where walls are still standing. This will surely change as the chill becomes yet more bitter.

2) A few schools have reopened but classes are held outdoors because the buildings are unsafe with leaning walls and deep cracks. According to the government 16,000 schools were destroyed or badly damaged. We were impressed to see that many schools in Kashmir are coeducational even up to the matriculation level, and standards appear quite a bit better than in Punjab. Question: should EAF use part of your donated money for reconstruction of school buildings? Please let me know how you feel about this. It IS important.

3) For the jihadist organizations the earthquake has been a godsend. Those that were formally banned by the Pakistan government are fully operative and highly visible in all earthquake zones, both Kashmir and NWFP. In open bazars and town centres one sees the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (aka Jamat-ud-Dawa), Jamat-e-Islami, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Sipah-e-Sahaba, Al Rasheed Trust, and others. They flaunt their flags and weapons, and drive
in SUVs and vehicles, presumably given to them by the Pakistan army and intelligence agencies. These organizations have a new claim on legitimacy, and will surely find it easier to find more recruits because
they acted promptly and efficiently. But surprisingly, Kashmiri nationalists, who are remarkably secular, have also done well in earthquake relief efforts and are gaining back some of the ground that they had lost to Islamic parties and organizations. The nationalists are not fond of Pakistan. We were amused to hear conversations between themselves where they would refer to us as "visitors from Pakistan". Islamabad is barely 30 miles away (as the crow flies) from Kashmir.

4) People have mixed feelings about the army's efforts, which are immensely better now than in the week after Oct 8. In some places the army is having a rough time. It has taken upon itself the task of reconstruction, but is finding out the hard way that this really needs a civilian infrastructure. Disaster relief and management are complex tasks and easily messed up. We were told that near Rawalakot a crowd of 15,000 stormily protested against the arbitrary manner in which the criterion for receiving relief money ($400 per household) had been changed, and against alleged irregularities. The earthquake has exposed Azad Kashmir's government as no more than cardboard puppets to be set aside, or manipulated at will, by the military rulers of Pakistan. The AJK
government has had no role to play in the earthquake disaster management.

Things are moving, and fortunately the grim predictions of mass deaths seem wrong. Thanks again, and with best regards.

Pervez
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Pervez Hoodbhoy
Professor of Physics
Quaid-e-Azam University
Islamabad 45320, Pakistan.
Phone (R): 92-51-2824257
Phone (O): 92-51-2829914

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ABDUL HAMEED NAYYAR'S REPORT

Pervez Hoodbhoy, Hajra Ahmad and I visited Kashmir with Mr. Arif Shahid on Sunday and Monday (4, 5 December 2005). We went to Muzaffarabad, Chikar, Bagh and Rawlakot. The purpose was to monitor progress of the work on temporary shelters (supported by the Eqbal Ahmad Foundation and SDPI) and
to take a measure of additional demand. The work is being undertaken in 3 areas: Chikar, Bagh and Rawlakot. From Muzaffarabad, Prof. Khaleeque also joined us to Bagh.

Chikar: Except for the last consignment of sheets for 14 shelters that left Rawalpindi on Monday, 5th December, all the sheets that were sent there for 40 shelters had been distributed. We visited two shelters that were being lived in, some which were ready or almost ready, and others for which wooden frame had been erected. Because the shelters were given to widely dispersed locations, it was not physically possible to check each
of them. The local organizers said they needed to cater to a larger demand, and we promised to supply sheets for 50 additional shelters.

Some people had enough wooden planks to use in making shelter walls and hence used the donated sheets for roof only, making larger shelters. Some had placed the sheets in inverted V shape on top of the tents they had
received. This was another good solution, except that it would not allow lighting fire for heat.

Insulation of shelters was a problem. When we suggested putting up hay stacks on the outside, a valid objection was that it would easily catch fire and destroy the entire structure. We are presently working on a new
scheme in which we would supply iron wire nets to be fixed to the CGI sheets on outside walls and plastered with mud. The nets should be able to hold the plaster. We are going to test it here, and check the cost of iron nets before committing to this solution. The nets would be reusable later for making chicken coops when the dwellers get down to making permanent houses after the winter.

In Chikar, we also met army officers. They told us that they were also following our prescription by distributing sheets to build shelters on our design. In fact, at places we needed to ask if the shelter was a part of
the EAF/SDPI program or donated by the army.

Bagh: We could not visit any site because we reached there after dark. Bagh is next to a river bed, but the places we have chosen for relief shelters are high up on the mountains around it. The roads up are very bad
and it would take a whole day to check the sites. Besides, the team there had distributed the sheets late, and according to them, no shelters were ready by then. Cutting wood for frames is a major problem, mobile cutters
being in high demand. They had received 823 sheets and had distributed 473 to 32 households. With the remaining, they were hoping to get 52 shelters completed within a week. We had a meeting with a few young members of the team, to whom Mr. Arif Shahid described his successful experience in Rawlakot of issuing sheets to only those who had completed the wooden frames. This area also needs many more shelters. They had a list of 16 villages that needed at least 50 shelters each. We promised to supply for another 50 shelters.

We also discussed the possibility of supporting destroyed private schools for reopening with a view to not only putting children back into schools but also providing employment to teachers who were presently out of job.

Rawlakot: We stayed overnight in Rawlakot and had the taste of the severe cold. It has not snowed yet in the town or up in the places we are providing shelters to, but it was biting cold.

In the morning we visited far off places like Chak Bazar, Khai Gala, Ali Sojal and Khorhi Channa, and saw a number of shelters made or under construction. In one place in particular we saw shelters being made from
our help by a community of Christian sweepers who had faced discrimination even in relief, we were told. Many frames were waiting for sawing machines. The list of further need is very large here too. We were told
that more people had erected frames in anticipation of sheets than those on the initial lists. Twenty nine additional ready frames were waiting for sheets in this area. Here also we promised to send sheets for another 50
shelters. The local organizers are preparing lists of many more needy households.

We hope to send off 3600 sheets for 150 shelters in each of the three locations in a week or so. We have already sent material for 132 shelters. If our insulation idea works, we will also send wire nets with detailed
instructions.