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Information
from the Belgian Pugwash Group
Here, then, is the problem which we present to you, stark and dreadful and inescapable: Shall we put an end to the human race, or shall mankind renounce war? Russell-Einstein Manifesto Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control. Article VI – Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty In this issue Download this issue Editorial * * * * Editorial[1]I have some very good friends among the ecologists; I fully respect their opinions, and I admire their constant efforts to keep our planet in a livable environment. It is now forty-five years since Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, and the movement it initiated has gained such impetus that it may no longer be ignored. [1] Quoted from memory, with all due apology ! Climate Change2007 Nobel Peace PrizeThe 2007 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Al Gore, in recognition of his efforts in the climate change field. Weapons of Mass DestructionDear friends, Mayors of Aviano & Ghedi launch campaign for Italian NWFZ[1]On October 1st, 200 people gathered on the main square of the Italian town of Ghedi, to launch a new campaign to declare Italy a NWFZ through a legal initiative. The Mayors of Aviano, Castenedolo and Ghedi were the first to sign the new law proposal declaring Italy a nuclear-weapon-free country. A very significant event, as Aviano and Ghedi are the two Italian cities where US nuclear weapons are stationed. [1] Sent in by Pol, Mayors for Peace 2020 Vision Campaign, International Secretariat Nuclear progress means peace regress
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| Oil | 36% | 5.4 TW | 830 W/person |
| Coal | 23% | 3.9 TW | 630 W/person |
| Natural gas | 20% | 3.0 TW | 460 W/person |
| Nuclear | 7% | 1.1TW | 160 W/person |
| Hydro | 2% | 0.3 TW | 46 W/person |
| Biomass and wastes | 11% | 1.7 TW | 254 W/person |
| Solar wind geothermal | 1% | 0.1 TW | 15 W/person |
Fossil fuels supply at present the bulk of world energy; as their availability is limited, and as their use contributes to global warming, they need to be replaced. Nuclear energy has problems of its own, and should also be replaced by more benign technology based on solar energy.
Insolation: the Physical Base of Green Energy
The solar constant at the Earth’s orbit is 1370 W/m2 perpendicular to the solar rays. 30 % is reflected back into space. Thus, the Earth receives 960 W/m2 of its cross section (1.27 *1014 m2), which is a total insolation available at the Earth’s surface of 1.22*1017 W, or 19 MW/person for the present world population; solar energy received at the Earth’s surface is some 10 000 times more than humans are presently using from other resources.
Distributed over the surface of the sphere, which is 4 times the cross section, insolation yields a day and night global average of 240 W/m2 on the surface. Equatorial regions get some 400 W/m2, while the inhabited regions in higher latitudes will receive around 200 W/m2 on a horizontal surface [6]. Using the global average insolation, 10 m2/person of horizontal surface receive the amount of energy presently used by humans on a global average.
Technical Solar Energy Conversion
The collection area required to satisfy human energy needs depends on the efficiency of the collection method. Solar cells reach efficiencies greater than 20% [7], producing on average some 50 W/m2 of electrical power. Electrical energy can supply both, the electricity proper, and transportation. Therefore, in order to supply 300 W/person electrical power consumption and 800 W/person in transportation needs, some 22 m2/person of solar cell collectors are required.
The global average need for thermal power is 1200 W/person; this is determined by subtracting electrical power and the power for transport from the total power. The achievable solar thermal efficiency is above 60% [8], which delivers on average 145 W/m2 of thermal power. Therefore, the direct use of solar thermal power requires a collector surface of approximately 8.3 m2/person.
In total, technical collection of all of humankind’s present energy needs requires solar collector area of some 30 m2/person on buildings or on dry land. By contrast, biomass conversion of solar energy is less efficient, and requires water, fertilizers, and biologically productive land.
Biomass Energy Generation in Theory and Practice
The central part of the solar spectrum is photosynthetically active radiation. Only 45% of solar radiation energy is carried by this part of the spectrum. A further reduction of biological solar energy conversion efficiency is due to the fact that some of the qualified photons absorbed by the plant fail to perform photosynthesis; the quantum efficiency is given as 25%, which reduces the conversion efficiency to 11%. In addition, some of the solar radiation is reflected, and photosynthesis requires respiration which requires energy. Thus, a realistic expectation for the efficiency by which solar radiation energy can be converted into biomass energy is 3% to 6% [9]. This theoretical efficiency is 10 times lower than the technical conversion efficiency. Hence some 300 m2/person of biologically productive land is required to supply the total present energy needs of humankind. In addition, transpiration of water is required for this photosynthesis to take place. Water needs for transpiration depend on conditions; the University of Prince Edward Island website states that between 250 g to 700 g water are needed for the photosynthesis of 1 g of dry biomass [10].
In practice, the efficiency of biomass conversion is much less than the theory predicts. An energy crop database developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory [11] offers realistic yields of unirrigated switchgrass and hybrid poplar plantations. The data for Barbor, Alabama may serve as an example. The median annual yield for switch grass, planted on former cropland, is 8.6 dry tons/acre; for hybrid poplar it is 4.1dry tons/acre. In SI units this represents an average dry matter production rate per square metre of 61?g/s, and 29 ?g/s respectively. Using a heating value of 15 kJ/g, the biomass power generation rate is 0.92 W/m2 for switchgrass, and 0.44 W/m2 for hybrid poplar. These values represent the energy harvested. The net overall efficiency is further reduced by the energy requirements to plant, harvest, dry, transport, process the crop into a suitable transportation fuel, and by the thermodynamic efficiency in electricity generation. In the end, the realistic overall power of biological conversion of solar energy to satisfy present human needs is less than 0.5 W/m2. Therefore, replacing the 2080 W/person presently derived from fossil fuels and nuclear energy with biomass energy requires more than 4000 m2/person of biologically productive land.
Global limits to Food and Energy Crops
A study of net primary productivity and energy fixation for the world done by Lieth [12] confirms the low efficiency of biological conversion of solar energy; only tropical rainforests and wetlands generate biomass energy at a rate of 1 W/m2; other forms of vegetation have lower yields.
According to Lieth 1.4*1013 m2 of land world wide is cultivated or used for permanent crops; this amounts to 2150 m2/person. The land used world wide for agriculture produces biomass energy at a rate 0.36 W/m2, or 774 W/person. Systematic utilization of agricultural waste and byproducts of the food system can contribute a few hundred watts per person to the total power consumption. However, to supply the remaining present energy needs from biomass is physically not feasible, as it requires additional 4000
m2/person of biologically productive land, which is not available on Planet Earth.
There are other reasons that prevent the large scale use of biomass for oil replacement. Energy farming is in direct competition with food production for land, for water, and for fertilizer. It is no secret that humankind is already struggling to eliminate hunger; therefore, to take land, water, and fertilizers away from food production is, in a global perspective, not an option. For example, to run one SUV on ethanol would require an amount of grain sufficient to feed 26 people, according to Lester Brown [13].
Furthermore, energy farming, like agriculture, is an enemy of biodiversity. Any land taken away from wilderness destroys habitat and contributes to the mass extinction of species. However, this will inevitably happen with increasing use of biomass fuels. Indonesia is planning to cut down rainforests in order to supply more palm oil [14]. Brazil threatens the Amazon rain forest by exporting ethanol from sugarcane, and soya based diesel fuel [15].
The problems of large scale global use of biomass can be visualized by comparing it with food energy. A person needs some 100 W of food energy -- some 2000 Cal/day. Feeding the present world energy system with biomass power of 2300 W/person is equivalent to feeding an additional 23 ‘energy slaves’ for each person; it is quite obvious that a healthy World ecosystem cannot spare sufficient biomass production capacity to feed the equivalent of 156 Billion human beings.
Conclusions
The replacement of fossil fuels and nuclear energy in the present world energy system by direct technical conversion of solar energy requires some 30 m2/person of solar collectors, and is technically feasible. Due to the lower efficiency of biological collection of solar energy the land area needed for bulk replacement of fossil and nuclear energy is 4000 m2/person; this is not feasible due to several reasons. There is a global shortage of biologically productive land, water, and fertilizer; furthermore, energy farming is in direct competition with food production, and contributes to further reduction of biodiversity in the Earth’s ecosystem.
Policy Recommendations to Governments Worldwide
References
1. US Energy Information Administration, World primary Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1.xls
2. US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html
3. IAEA Energy and Environment Data Reference Bank:
http://www.iaea.org/inis/aws/eedrb/
4. US Energy Information Administration, World total Net Electricity
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table63.xls
5. Keoleian, Gregory A., University of Michigan. World Total Primary Energy Supply in 1998: http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/Energy.ppt#303
6. Pidwirny, Michael. Physical Geography, University of British Columbia, Kelowna. Insolation http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7g.html
7. Spectrolab, Sylmar CA http://www.spectrolab.com/prd/terres/cell-main.htm
8. Lovegrove, Keith, Solar Thermal Group, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Concentrating Solar Thermal Systems Table 1
http://engnet.anu.edu.au/DEresearch/solarthermal/pages/basics.php
9. Kazuhisa Miyamoto, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan, Editor. “Renewable biological systems for alternative sustainable energy production”. FAO Agricultural Services Bulletin – 128, Chapter 1.2.1. http://www.fao.org/docrep/w7241e/w7241e00.HTM
10. University of Prince Edward Island, Canada. Energy Environment and the Economy resources. Photosynthesis water needs
http://www.upei.ca/~physics/p261/Content/Sources_Conversion/Photo_synthesis/photo_synthesis.htm
11. Graham R.L. et al., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Energy Crop County Level Database. http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/bioen96/graham2.html
12. Lieth, H.F.H. Net primary productivity and energyfixation for the world. In: Primary Productivity of the Biosphere, (H. Lieth, and R.H. Whittaker, eds.). Ecological Studies 14. Springer-Verlag, New York and Berlin. 1975 pp. 203-215. www.daac.ornl.gov/NPP/other_files/worldnpp2.txt
13. Lester Brown, Refocus Weekly, July 26, 2006, Washington, DC, USA: Environmentalist questions the popularity of green fuels. http://www.sparksdata.co.uk/refocus/newsdesk.asp?accnum=1&catid=206
14. Eric Wakker, April 2006, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The Kalimantan Border Oil Palm Mega-project.
15. Biofuelwatch 2006. Case Study Brazil http://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/background5.php
Questions in the Dutch Parliament, by Member van Velzen, and answers by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, August 13th and 27th, 2007 -
Ref.: (in Dutch)
Sent in by K.Koster, k.koster@inter.nl.net
eu-abolition2000@lists.riseup.net
Answer: Yes, I have noted the 'Agreement for cooperation between the government of the United States of America and the government of India concerning peaceful uses of nuclear energy'. Neither the details of thenegotiations between the United States and India, nor the motivations which led to the final negotiated result, are known to me. A number of stipulations in the treaty, including those dealing with the termination of the treaty and the acquisition of nuclear fuel, is not clear as of this moment. Further explanation by the treaty parties involved is necessary for a complete understanding of the treaty. After that a comprehensive analysis of the treaty in question can be made.
3. Do you agree that delivery of nuclear fuel to India for civilian purposes will allow the country to free its own limited supplies for its nuclear weapons programme? If not, can you explain why not? If yes, how do you evaluate this?
Answer: Yes, I am also of the opinion that the delivery of nuclear fuel (and uranium) for civil purposes will allow India to free its own limited uranium stockpile for the production of fissile materials for the nuclear weapons programme. As was pointed out by my predecessor in his letter of 5 July 2006 (parliamentary ref 21 501-02, nr. 692), this is a matter of concern for the Netherlands, which has in diplomatic contacts with India and the United states repeatedly stated our preference for India to declare a moratorium on the production of fissile materials for explosive purposes. India in turn has repeatedly informed us that it is not planning to declare a unilateral moratorium, but that it is prepared to work in a multilateral framework on the realisation of a fissile materials cut-off treaty. This fact forms an extra encouragement for the Netherlands to continue its efforts for the initiation of negotiations on such a treaty.
4. Do you agree that the so-called 123 Agreement undermines the Non-Proliferation Treaty? If not, why not? Do you furthermore agree with me that by making India an exception this treaty undermines any position taken regarding any other (possible) proliferating states?
5. Do you agree that this treaty contradicts statements by the head of the IAEA Al Baradei, declaring that states with nuclear weapons must take ongoing disarmament steps, permanently end nuclear testing subject to the law, as well as cease production of nuclear material for weapons?
Answer: As stated in my reply to questions 1 and 2, I am not as of this moment able to make a comprehensive analysis of the treaty. Furthermore a fullscope safeguards agreement still to be agreed on between India and the IAEA will form a crucial part of the nuclear arrangements between the US and India. An analysis of the treaty and the full-scope safeguards agreement is necessary in order to give a comprehensive evaluation of the possible effects of the civil nuclear cooperation between India and the US.
In general the position taken in relation to nuclear weapons states and (possible) proliferating states is evaluated on a case by case basis, taking into account the specific merits.
6. Do you agree that the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) imply that trade with countries which do not allow security inspections by the IAEA, is illegal? If so, do you agree with me that the present NSG guidelines prevent implementation of the US-India treaty being referred to? If not, why not? If yes, can you indicate how the Netherlands will react to an (American) proposal to adjust the NSG guidelines in such a way that implementation of the treaty would no longer violate the guidelines?
Answer: The NSG guidelines determine that for deliveries of sensitive nuclear goods and technologies (the 'Trigger List' ) to non-nuclear weapons states to take place, the receiving country must have signed a fullscope safeguards agreement with the IAEA, that is to say, it must allow IAEA inspections on all of its territory. For the delivery of nuclear-related dual use materials and technologies this strict rule does not apply.
Answer: Since India is not an official nuclear weapons state and has not signed a full-scope safeguards agreements with the IAEA, the treaty in question can indeed not be implemented without adjustment of the present NSG guidelines.
As was already stated by my predecessor in his letter of 19 April 2006 (parliamentary ref 21 502-02, nr.681), the planned civil nuclear cooperation with India contains positive elements, such as the further embedment of India in the global non-proliferation system and the subjection of a significant part of its nuclear activities to IAEA supervision. The nuclear agreement also meets part of the fast-growing Indian energy needs, without using fossil fuels. That is why the Netherlands is prepared to take a positive position in the NSG, when possible American proposals to adjust the NSG guidelines, are discussed. Our point of departure is that the decision to be taken must be in accordance with our non-proliferation commitments.
References: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2007/aug/90050.htm
http://www.armscontrol.org/events/20061114_India_Transcript.asp
Document IAEA INFCIRC/254/Part 1
Document IAEA INFCIRC/254/Part 2
Hiroshima - Ypres, August 31st 2007 - Since July 30th Mayors for Peace welcomed 34 new member cities and municipalities. On August 30th the Conference involves 1,732 cities in 122 countries and regions around the world.
The latest member cities are from Argentine (1), Australia (1), Belgium (1), Canada (1), Cyprus (1), Czech Republic (4), Iran (1), Iraq (9), Italy (2), Poland (1), Portugal (2) and US (10). New membership forms are being received almost every day at the secretariat of Mayors for Peace in Hiroshima.
New members are the mayors from General San Martin (Argentine), Launceston (Australia), Maarkedal (Belgium), Brampton (Canada), Kyrenia (Cyprus), Jince, Rozmitál pod Tremsinem, Stitov and Trokavec (Czech Republic), Kermanshah (Iran), Abu-Garak and Ali-Hill, Alhartha, Ali-Algharbe, Ali-Alsharqi, Alkawther, Al-Kumait, Alqaseem, Amarah and Saddah (Iraq), Cervia and Sant' Agata Bolognese (Italy), Trzebinia (Poland), Cãmara de Lobos and Mértola (Portugal), Brooklyn (OH), Coral Springs (FL), Dayton
(OH), Des Moines (IA), Fayetteville (AK), Hallandale Beach (FL), Normal (IL), Oakland (CA), Oak Park (IL) and Pleasanton (CA) all in the USA.
Mayors for Peace aims to continue to expand its capacity by attracting new members and deepen its relationship with the members. We aim to have 2,020 members by the end of 2007 in as many countries as possible.
Following strategic discussions in Hiroshima last week we are especially interested to expand our capacity in the nuclear weapon states: Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and US. Of course also the NATO member-states and mayors in Nuclear Weapon Free Zones will be asked to endorse the call to have the world free of nuclear weapons by 2020.
We will need the help of the NGO community to make this happen. Please don't hesitate to get back to us if you can assist as. We attach the registration form for Mayors. Let us know if you need a recruitment letter from mayor Tadatoshi Akiba to your mayor(s).
Warm regards,
Pol D'Huyvetter
Executive Advisor
Hiroshima Peace Culture Foundation
Mayors for Peace 2020 Vision Campaign
International Secretariat
City Hall, Grote Markt 34, B-8900 Ypres, BELGIUM
Phone: +32-57-38 89 57
E-mail: 2020visioncampaign@ieper.be
Website: 2020visioncampaign.org
A True Story
The passengers are boarding a transatlantic flight; a well-dressed woman hesitates, in apparent distress.
She is back a few minutes later.
And before the lady has time to comment, the hostess goes on:
Then turning to the man:
And the surrounding passengers stand up and cheer!
[1] Note: This bi-monthly information sheet is distributed, free of charge and strictly by e-mail, to a select list of addressees. To be included in (or excluded from) the mailing list, just send an e-mail to mechelynck@compuserve.com; comments are welcome (see Appendix 2). Information contained in this publication may be freely reproduced and distributed, with mention of the source.
[2] Publication of any contribution does not imply that we endorse or even agree with the author’s opinions, which remain his responsibility. In the latter case, we reserve the right to append a comment or, if we deem fit, a rebuttal (see Appendix 2.).
[3] Plowshare does not fully agree with Prof. Brukhardt’s conclusions - it believs that all alternate ways to displace carbon-based fuels as energy suppliers should be pursued - but the article provides essential data and is worth studying.
Nobel Peace Prize 1995 (jointly with Prof. Sir Joseph Rotblat †)
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